Things That Sucked Last Year: The Penalty Kill

The lockout. Thuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuh lockout. Most Senators fans will probably get their hockey fix this season from one of two options:

a) the local junior team who lost 5 of their 7 leading scorers, and all 3 of their goaltenders

or

b) last year’s worst AHL team through grainy, low-quality live streams

Fantastic!

I’ll probably be watching the 67’s, but I’ll most likely toss a slice of B-Sens action onto my OHL hockey hamburger every now and then to catch a glimpse of the team’s top prospects.

MOVING ON

Last year the Ottawa Senators had the 7^th worst defense in the league. Part of that was due to allowing the 5^th most PP goals in the league because of: a) a poor penalty kill, and b) taking tons of unnecessary penalties

So how bad was the penalty kill?

In 2011-12, Ottawa’s penalty kill operated at 81.6%, which was 20^th in the league. So we know they allowed a lot of goals, but is that really the best way to evaluate the penalty kill? That’s what I will be attempting to figure out. Here is an excerpt from an article written by Gabriel Desjardins at Artic Ice Hockey on team’s power play talent:

“…the rate at which teams shoot on the PP is a better indicator of their future power-play "efficiency" than their past power-play efficiency.

A number of commenters have expressed discomfort that I don't believe that the team with the highest power-play "efficiency" is the team with the best power-play.  But remember that power-play "efficiency" is a flawed measure of talent - it's merely a sample of a team's ability.  And ability is not the same thing as performance.”

So, if the best indicator of a power-play’s talent is their shot rate, then the best way to evaluate a penalty kill would be by their shots against rate. Here are the numbers from last season.

Team	PP GA	PK%	PK SA	Minutes	SA/60
MTL	36	88.6	347	521	39.96
PIT	33	87.8	313	457	41.09
COL	47	83	336	476	42.35
PHI	58	81.8	371	512	43.48
NJD	27	89.6	320	438	43.84
STL	40	85.8	353	477	44.40
NYR	36	86.2	340	432	47.22
DET	50	81.8	354	448	47.41
ANA	51	82	367	464	47.46
EDM	52	82.4	410	505	48.71
LAK	38	87	428	508	50.55
CGY	42	84.3	361	427	50.73
MIN	51	82.1	402	475	50.78
WSH	49	81.6	378	440	51.55
BOS	43	83.5	367	423	52.06
NYI	46	80.5	344	393	52.52
SJS	52	76.9	316	361	52.52
CAR	49	80.6	348	396	52.73
CBJ	64	76.6	383	433	53.07
VAN	40	86	423	478	53.10
TOR	55	77.3	350	392	53.57
TBL	59	79.2	406	449	54.25
OTT	57	81.6	462	510	54.35
NSH	40	83.6	353	389	54.45
DAL	52	82.8	444	488	54.59
WPG	58	80.1	426	468	54.62
PHX	36	85.5	385	414	55.80
FLA	49	79.5	358	383	56.08
BUF	47	81.7	393	420	56.14
CHI	51	78.1	362	384	56.56

One thing I find interesting is teams like Phoenix, Dallas and Nashville, who appear to have good penalty kills only because they are bailed out by great goaltending. People aren’t kidding when they say that your goaltender is your best penalty killer.

Ottawa finished 8^th last in shots against on the penalty kill. Although there isn’t a big difference in shot rate from the teams around them, they’re still on the wrong end of that chart. If the Sens want to make the playoffs this season (if there is one), then this is an area in which they’ll need to improve.

Now let’s take a look at the PK shot rate for each Sens player last season (min. 40 PK minutes). The Y axis is SA/60, and the x axis is PK TOI/game.

Here are a few of my observations:

-Despite winning a lot of draws in the defensive zone, the Senators penalty kill was absolutely brutal with Konopka on the ice. If you’re having trouble reading the player’s numbers on the graph, you can blame Konopka for stretching the y axis with his horrible play

-Winchester was very good at killing penalties, so losing him is disappointing. Fortunately, Jim O’Brien had almost identical numbers. I could see him being a guy the team relies on for killing penalties heavy minutes next season

-Daugavins was very effective as well, but with the addition of more wingers to the roster, he’ll probably be pushed down the depth chart, and may become more of a 13^th forward

-Zack Smith had the second highest shot rate on the team, meaning it’s probably time to reduce his role on the PK and to find a different option for playing those heavy minutes

-The now departed Filip Kuba led the team in PK minutes/game, so somebody will have to fill his shoes. I think that person should be the newly acquired Mike Lundin. In 2010-11, he average 2.5 PK minutes/game, and had a SA/60 of just 48.5 on a PK of similar talent to Ottawa. While Lundin possess next to no offensive talent, he is still a very valuable asset on the penalty kill.

-Aaaaaaaaand the Sens most effective penalty killer last season was…Erik Karlsson? Well, well, well. With all of the talk from the MSM and fans of the other 29 teams in the league, I was starting to think that he stinks at killing penalties. Karlsson also spent nearly a minute and a half a night on the PK in 2010-11, and had the lowest shot rate among Sens D men. So I guess Karlsson doesn’t kill penalties is a much more accurate description than saying he can’t kill penalties. Get it right, jackasses.

So, should Karlsson kill penalties?

Well, while teams are on the power-play, they create scoring chances at a rate much higher than at even strength. Obviously having good penalty killers is very important.

But my answer to that question is no.

The drawback to having Karlsson kill penalties is that it takes away from his even strength time. After all, his play at even-strength last year was the reason why he won the Norris. While the team does have a few guys like Lundin, Phillips, and Cowen who are decent at killing penalties, they don’t have anybody who comes eve close to the puck moving and offensive skills that Karlsson has. With Gonchar turning 38 next year, and Methot replacing Kuba, I feel like the rest of the Sens backend lacks the offensive talent to make up for a reduction in Karlsson’s even-strength minutes. On a team that gets most of its success through offensive play, (4^th in goals for) it wouldn’t make sense to use their best offensive talent in defensive situations. It’s just a matter of playing players to their strengths.

Here's what I’d like to see the top 2 PK units look like:

O’Brien-Daugavins-Cowen-Lundin

Smith-Condra-Phillips-Methot

Overall, the team’s penalty kill last year was really bad, and with the possibility of their offense regressing, they absolutely need to improve it. But I think it will be better next season. With the addition of Lundin, and getting rid of Alex Auld, the PK should receive an upgrade. The good news is that most of the team’s penalty killers are young, and will continue to better.

All stats are from nhl.com and behindthenet